Week 3: Over the Hedge

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My mom always told me to hedge my bets. At a young age, she told me to “never put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify.” I’m confident this was a common message between most parents.

As an investor, its even more prevalent. And if there’s one phrase for Netflix’s movement this week, its this: “Diversify.” Netflix itself was not explicitly in the news this week often, but their future will be undoubtedly impacted by movements across the market.

According to an analyst at Guggenheim Securities, Netflix’s subscribers is primed for a third quarter increase. This comes on the heels of more content and licensing deals, enticing new users to join the platform. The analyst upgraded his target price from $360 to $420, indicative of his confidence in the stock’s future performance. This is a good sign for investors, for with a solid buy rating across the market, an investment at this point in the stock seems lucrative in the future.

The article, published by Investor’s Business Daily, also spoke to Netflix’s attempts to expand into the Indian market. I personally enjoy this move, for it demonstrates their attempt to be a global company. Online streaming is a largely unsaturated international market, primed for conglomerates like Netflix to make a killing overseas. While Netflix would love to expand internationally, it already has competition, and its only heating up.

This week, Bloomberg published an article about Comcast’s attempts to combat Netflix overseas through the acquisition of “European TV Giant” Sky. Comcast is losing its customers to Netflix’s services, for the wide content base as well as cheap price is appealing to young professionals and families alike. While it is uncertain whether this acquisition will ultimately benefit Comcast, it is a testament to Netflix’s importance domestically and internationally.

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Comcast beat out 21st Century Fox to acquire Sky earlier this week

I think that Netflix should continue to compete with TV giants. The age of paying for cable that you barely watch are gone. It’s time for on-demand streaming and endless movies. I would be curious to see if Netflix moves into the Live TV realm or stays with on-demand content to compete with other telecom companies.

So while you were binge-watching “Friends,” the S&P 500 came out with some exciting news. Starting this Monday, Netflix, along with tech giants Alphabet and Facebook, will be shifting sectors to a new “Communications” sector. This is investors attempts to regulate the high market cap of FANG stocks in the tech sector. Telecommunications itself will surely suffer, with many of its majors players moving sectors.

This move was very interesting to me. As a follower of the tech sector myself, I was a bit disappointed because telecom ETFs will likely take a hit in the coming days. However, I am excited at the possibility of getting in on the ground level of the new communications ETF, called Communications Service Select Sector. It should be interesting to see how the market reacts as well as what stocks join Netflix, Alphabet, and Facebook in this new sector.

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If nothing else, this demonstrates investors attempts to normalize the FANG stocks and their influence on the market. With volatility ahead, it should be an interesting few weeks.

I hope you hedged your bets folks, because we’re in for a wild ride.

 

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-23/comcast-makes-risky-bet-on-global-scale-in-response-to-netflix

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/click/netflix-subscriber-growth-rebounding-q3/

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/21/on-monday-google-facebook-and-netflix-will-make-a-big-market-move.html

 

Netflix Week 2: To Ad or Not to Ad?

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If you were to talk to a life coach, they would probably tell you that a “healthy amount of change” leads to a more fulfilling life. Naturally, you would respond, “well, how much change is a healthy amount?” and would likely receive an ambiguous and insufficient answer.

This week, Netflix probed the same question to its users regarding advertisements and price changes and received a much more explicit answer, one that they likely didn’t want to hear.

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A hallmark of Netflix is its ad-free service

Earlier this week, Netflix conducted a survey of over 1,600 users regarding skippable advertisements before and between programs. According to a CNBC article, 23% of consumers replied they would drop the service entirely while only 41% would definitely keep the service. With a proposed $3 reduction in price in conjunction with ads, only 16% of users would abandon the service.

As a user of Netflix myself, I can understand why advertisements would make some users rethink their experience. One of the best parts of Netflix is the seamless transition between episodes of The Office, devoid of the ads that plague YouTube and other streaming services. However, I find the report to be somewhat of an overreaction; the wide range of content Netflix offers outweighs the few seconds of ads between episodes. While I think it might cause new users to be more hesitant to sign up and instead research other alternatives, namely Hulu, I doubt it would cause 1/4 of users to drop the service. Nonetheless, this news reaffirms the importance of the ad free experience for consumers.

What interests me about this story is the basis for the advertisements: if implemented, the ads would contribute to financing an $8 billion budget increase with the hopes of adding over 700 original programs. Currently, Netflix has 6.2 years of HD video. While I understand the necessity to continue to add content and compete with other services, 700 new shows in one year seems excessive.

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Netflix has over 7,200 movies and TV shows

I see the Netflix content menu as a menu at a diner: if there are too many options, I can’t make up my mind, and sometimes I just leave. Netflix should continue to expand but should be weary of expanding too quickly. Maybe this less than flattering survey will make them rethink their plan to add so many programs.

So when it comes down to it, Netflix has a choice: to ad or not to ad, and while this decision may seem financially motivated, I hope the officials consider the cultural impact their decision could make before any rash decisions.

 

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/about-one-quarter-of-netflix-subscribers-would-jump-if-it-runs-ads.html

https://qz.com/1387706/netflix-amazon-and-other-tech-titans-are-eclipsing-fall-tv-2018/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-it-absorbs-time-warner-at-t-expects-profitability-next-year-1536760417

 

 

Netflix Week 1: The Inception

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Parents hate it. Teachers hate it. Teenagers love it. Arguably the best way to waste time and avoid homework or chores, many kids and adults alike turn on their mobile devices or TVs to binge their favorite shows on one of the most popular internet streaming services: Netflix.

Netflix, founded in 1997 by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph, is an international company that provides both internet streamed TV shows and movies as well as discs and Blu-Ray. Netflix works with producers to license content in addition to creating its own. CEO and founder Reed Hastings has managed the company for the past twenty years, working out of Netflix headquarters in Los Gatos, California. Netflix began as an online rent-a-DVD service and added its monthly subscription component in 1999. Randolph eventually left the company in 2002, leaving Hastings as acting CEO. The corporation went public on May 29, 2002 at $15.00 per share for 5.5 million shares. Hastings soon created Netflix’s streaming service in 2007, enabling users to instantly watch content. In 2013, “House of Cards,” Netflix’s first original program, debuted; Netflix would continue to create popular original content, including “Orange is the New Black” and “Stranger Things.” Today, Netflix has over 118 million subscribers and currently trades at $348.68 for a market cap of 151.84 billion.

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CEO and Chairman Reed Hastings

I chose to cover Netflix for the fall semester because of its prevalence in the technology sector and the market at a whole. Netflix is a relatively young company, and yet it is internationally known and has a significant market cap. The technology sector as a whole is extremely popular right now, with Netflix being a sector leader. I am also a user of Netflix, and covering the company would enable me to understand more about the interface and its future plans. I see Netflix moving towards more original content, and I am curious to see how the stock reacts as well as the public. The public has an emotional connect to Netflix, and it will be interesting to see how developments in the television and technology industries will impact it.

Given my limited knowledge of Netflix, I would be interested in working in Los Gatos. Netflix provides a valuable service to the community, enabling individuals to view educational and personal videos and programs. The culture seems to embrace creativity and community. There is also the ability to climb the ladder at Netflix, for many top officials were once at entry level positions. The company has a relatively positive public image, somewhat clouded by the Kevin Spacey scandal and their unsuccessful attempt at Qwikster. Despite these, I would consider working for Netflix because of its upside as a company and the potential for vertical mobility.

I would invest in Netflix because I believe is it significantly undervalued. Netflix trades at $348.68 with a 52 week range of $176.55 to $423.21. This dip in price seems like an opportunity for investment ahead of gains. I am excited to see what happens over the course of the semester and to learn more about the organization.

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/company-profile/NFLX.O

https://www.cnn.com/2014/07/21/showbiz/gallery/netflix-history/index.html

https://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/nflx/